YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — On Kalshi, a US-regulated derivatives exchange, bettors now predict a 70% chance that Donald Trump will create a US Bitcoin reserve in 2026. This marks a sharp rise in confidence, with odds increasing by 20% since early January.
Trump Bitcoin Reserve Odds. Source: KalshiSimilarly, Polymarket, a cryptocurrency prediction platform, shows users estimating a 41% likelihood of Trump establishing the reserve within his first 100 days in office. Both platforms have seen a surge in betting activity tied to Trump’s pro-Bitcoin rhetoric and related developments.
Trump Bitcoin Reserve Prediction. Source: PolymarketKalshi and Polymarket allow users to trade contracts linked to real-world events. These platforms gained attention during the November 2024 elections, accumulating over $4 billion in trading volume. Their forecasts accurately predicted Trump’s victory and the Republican sweep of the House and Senate.
Trump’s Pro-Bitcoin Stance Drives Industry Hopes
At the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, Trump announced plans to establish a “strategic national Bitcoin reserve.” He assured attendees that his administration would never sell the US government’s Bitcoin holdings.
In July, Trump spoke at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, pledging to transform the United States into a leading global hub for cryptocurrency. Source: Bitcoin MagazineRecent reports indicate Trump may expand this reserve to include other cryptocurrencies like USD Coin (USDC), Solana (SOL), and XRP. According to The New York Post, the president-elect is expected to issue an executive order prioritizing cryptocurrency immediately after taking office on Jan. 20.
These developments align with industry efforts to position Bitcoin as a key national asset. Trump’s statements have also increased optimism within the crypto community.
Senator Cynthia Lummis and the BITCOIN Act
In November, Senator Cynthia Lummis, a long-time Bitcoin advocate, introduced the BITCOIN Act. The bill proposes that the Treasury Department acquire 1 million BTC over five years, establishing a US Bitcoin reserve.
Cynthia Lummis Bitcoin Reserve Tweet. Source: XThe BITCOIN Act represents a significant legislative effort to integrate Bitcoin into US financial strategy. Lummis, often referred to as the “Crypto Queen,” has consistently supported cryptocurrency initiatives on Capitol Hill.
Market Impact of a US Bitcoin Reserve
Above all, the establishment of a US Bitcoin reserve is anticipated to significantly influence the cryptocurrency market. A Jan. 10 blog post from CoinShares, a cryptocurrency research firm, stated that the enactment of the BITCOIN Act could have “a more profound long-term impact on Bitcoin than the launch of ETFs.”
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