Cardano (ADA) Crashes 26% – Will It Drop to $0.30 or Rebound?

Cardano whales have offloaded a massive 170 million ADA, slashing large-holder balances from 3.26 billion to 2.98 billion tokens. The sell-off coincided with ADA’s drop from $0.83 to $0.65, intensifying bearish sentiment.

Daily Active Addresses Plummet – Bad News for ADA?

Santiment’s Daily Active Addresses index paints a grim picture for Cardano. The number of active wallets interacting with the blockchain has dropped sharply, falling from 49,585 in early February to just 24,609 last week. This downward trend, which began in mid-January, suggests declining network demand—historically a bearish signal for ADA’s price.

ADA daily active addresses chart. Source: Santiment Lower on-chain activity means fewer transactions and less overall interest, reinforcing the argument that ADA may struggle to regain bullish momentum. If demand continues to shrink, Cardano could face additional sell pressure in the coming weeks.

Could ADA Crash to $0.30 or Rally to $1?

Rose Premium Signals noted that ADA price is currently nearing the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, an area historically known for strong bounces.

If buyers defend the $0.65 support level, bullish momentum could push ADA toward $1 and beyond, with Rose Premium Signals setting targets at $1.214 and $1.398.

However, if ADA breaks below this crucial level, the situation could turn ugly fast. A failure to hold support might send prices plummeting toward $0.30, wiping out recent gains and extending the downtrend.

Meanwhile, Bleves Crypto suggests that if ADA follows its previous bull cycle’s Golden Ratio, it could eventually reach $8.06—a scenario that remains speculative given current market conditions.

With whale activity, declining network engagement, and crucial technical levels all in play, ADA traders must tread carefully. The coming days will determine whether Cardano rebounds or sinks deeper into bearish territory.

Technical Indicators Are Flashing Red

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 27.73, well into oversold territory. That means sellers have been in control for a while, and while an oversold RSI sometimes signals a bounce, it’s not a guarantee. ADA needs to push past 39.92 to suggest momentum is shifting.

The 50-day and 200-day EMAs at $0.8093 and $0.7261 are way above ADA’s current price, confirming that the token is deep in a downtrend. Unless ADA reclaims these moving averages, it’s hard to make a bullish case.

The price action is also forming a descending triangle, which isn’t what bulls want to see. If ADA breaks below this pattern, the next major support is around $0.50, and if that level fails, things could get ugly fast.

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